Posted by Ray Flowers (@BaseballGuys) on 08/19/2013 | 0 Comments
Tags: e Fernandez, David DeJesus, Denard Span, Elliot Johnson, Chris Getz, Dustin Ackley, Danny Salazar, Jonathan Papelbon, Brian Roberts, Chris Carter, Josh Hamilton
An ace in the NL is about to be shut down, a late round flier has outproduced an MVP, a multi-position option is finally hitting an a minor trade highlight today's piece. The Marlins' young ace is approaching the end of the line with his innings total this season. When will he be shut down? What about the Indians young star on the hill --- why are we talking about him this week? How is it possible that a reserve round addition in mixed leagues is outperforming a former league MVP? The Nationals added an outfielder to the mix. Should anyone care? Second sackers are in the news from Baltimore to Kansas City to Seattle. Also, when will the Phillies closer ever pick up another save? This and much more in today's all-encompassing, articulate and eminently enjoyable article.
A LOOMING SHUTDOWN
After throwing 134 innings last season it makes sense to cap this fellas innings this year, and since you've known that all along hopefully you have plans in place when he is shutdown.
The Marlins have nothing to play for this season, so it's wise for them to look to the future (ironic that we're talking about forward thinking with this club who continually dismantles it's club). Joe Frisaro is reporting that the club plans to shut down Jose Fernandez at 170 innings pitched this season. Fernandez enters play on Monday with 139.2 innings pitched (he's set to face the Dodgers Monday). If he is allowed to get to that 170 inning mark, and he pitches an average of seven innings a start, he will be shut down on September 4[SUP]th[/SUP] when his IP mark would be just short of 170 (if the club wanted him to have an extra day between starts they might push him back to September 6[SUP]th[/SUP]).
Fernandez has been elite this season by any measure other than W-L where he is 8-5. Fernandez is third in the NL with a 2.45 ERA, his 1.02 WHIP is third and his 149 Ks in 139.2 innings give him a K/9 mark of 9.60 which is the fourth best mark in the NL. Fernandez has allowed three earned runs only once in 10 his last starts, and during that time he's dropped his ERA nearly three quarters of a run as he's allowed 13 runs in his last 10 starts. There are only a handful of better options as keepers in the NL, and there's not many that would have predicted that such a statement would be true five months ago with the 21 year old rookie.
A SUPRISING COMPARISON
If I were to throw out these numbers, could you tell me who they belonged to? I'm betting you wouldn't be able to tell me.
.230-19-60-58-3 with a .285 OBP and .710 OPS
.214-23-62-50-0 with a .313 OBP and .754 OPS
Obviously the whole point of this exercise is that one guy is under-performing while the other is over-performing so they basically meet in the middle.
One guy is a five time All-Star and league MVP.
The other had a total of 332 at-bats coming into the season.
The first set of numbers belong to Josh Hamilton while the second belongs to Chris Carter. Yes, the Astros' slugger who was lucky to be taken by the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] round has actually been the equal of a fella that was a top-25 overall pick in most mixed leagues this season
A DEAL
David DeJesus was dealt from the Cubs to the Nationals for a Player To Be Named later (the Nats released Roger Bernadina to open up a roster spot). Yippee. By my count the Nationals will be starting Jayson Werth in right, Denard Span in center and Bryce Harper in left. DeJesus could steal some from Span who is hitting a mere .264 with a .670 OPS and 11 steals, but it's not like DeJesus has done anything different with the bat this season. Let's compare the duo.
D. Span: .264/.314/.356 with 33 RBIs, 49 runs, 11 steals
DeJesus: .250/.330/.401 with 27 RBIs, 39 runs, 3 steals
DeJesus is 178 at-bats behind Span this season so it's fair to say that DeJesus is a more productive player this season on a per at-bat basis, but that's really not saying much given his level of production. DeJesus is not going to see any work against lefties since he's hitting .156 with a .402 OPS against them this season (45 at-bats), though it's not like he's far off the pace of Span which is also awful (.173 with a .427 OPS in 127 at-bats). Adding a veteran like DeJesus is a fine thing to do, but really the best thing he's likely to do for D.C. is to up their GQ factor because of his smoking hot wife. What the Nationals really could have used was a player who they could platoon who really hits lefties well (Span has hit .298 with a .761 OPS against righties this season).
A RELEASE
Elliot Johnson was let go by the Royals. That likely means nothing at all to a good deal of you, but if you're in an AL-only league it's a tough blow if you had been eating his poor production to get some steals. And poor protection is an understatement. Johnson is hitting .179 with two homers and nine RBIs in 162 at-bats, so you were paying a dear price for those 14 steals (he hasn't been caught once). OK, no one likely cares that he was released. With Miguel Tejada also done for the year it looks like Hosmer/Moustakas on the corners, Alcides Escobar at short and Chris Getz at second. Jamey Carroll will also be sprinkled in. Getz has boosted his average from .209 to .230 over his last eight games but he's only bringing speed as well (11 steals over 61 games).
SHORT HOPS
*Dustin Ackley has hit .409 the past week. Yes, that Dustin Ackley, the guy hitting .239 for the Mariners this season. Better yet, Ackley is batting .417 the past two weeks. I know, crazy ain’t it? Ackley has a horrific total of one bomb through 276 at-bats and his 19 RBIs, 29 runs and two steals leave him as someone who is really only a one category booster at the moment. Still, he's played 45 games at second base and 34 in the outfield this season, so in AL-only leagues he might just end up being a solid option down the stretch.
Jonathan Papelbon has a 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, a 4.89 K/BB ratio and 20 saves. Another in a series of impressive seasons. Sort of. Here's the downside. His 8.49 K/9 mark is a career worst and two full batters below his career mark. He has six blown saves this season after blowing just seven the last two years. He doesn't have a single save in August. Moreover, his last save was five weeks ago... on July 11[SUP]th[/SUP], and that fact alone is truly astounding. Despite the massive void in the saves column, there's every possibility that he rips off three saves this week. It's just the nature of the beast. He'll need to kick things into gear in order to reach 30 saves for the 8[SUP]th[/SUP] straight season.
Brian Roberts used to be a hell of an offensive contributor. He's scored 100 runs four times, from 2007-09 he stole an average of 40 bases a season, and from 2005-2009 he hit .294. Alas, that was eons ago for the oft injured second sacker. Roberts appeared in just 59 games in 2010, 39 in 2011 and 17 in 2012 as injury after injury kept him sidelined. This season he's been sidelined for all but 41 games, but there might be some reason to take note again. Not only has he driven in four runs in his last two games and six runners in his last six games, but he's also produced 10 hits in his last six games. It's a nice hot streak that might lead to some mixed leagues relevance as a middle infielder, but note that through 131 at-bats that he has two homers, one steal an a .331 OBP.
Danny Salazar will have his Monday start pushed back to Tuesday (Zack McAllister will toe the rubber in his place). Salazar is fine, don't worry those of you that added him to the mix. The team just wants to monitor his workload. However, this is a big blow to those setting their lineups once a week. Salazar was set up to be a 2-start pitcher this week. With his first start being pushed back to Tuesday it robs him of that bonus this week since the club has an off day Thursday the 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] (Happy Anniversary Mom and Dad). Salazar has made three starts in the bigs and though he is just 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA he's pitched very well with a 0.96 WHIP, 11.21 K/9 mark an a 4.40 K/BB ratio. His lone failing has been the long ball as he's surrendered four big flies. He should have a lot of success if he keeps the ball in the yard.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87, Monday through Friday. For more of Ray's analysis you can check out BaseballGuys.com or the BaseballGuys' Twitter account where he tirelessly answer everyone's questions.
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Tags: e Fernandez, David DeJesus, Denard Span, Elliot Johnson, Chris Getz, Dustin Ackley, Danny Salazar, Jonathan Papelbon, Brian Roberts, Chris Carter, Josh Hamilton
An ace in the NL is about to be shut down, a late round flier has outproduced an MVP, a multi-position option is finally hitting an a minor trade highlight today's piece. The Marlins' young ace is approaching the end of the line with his innings total this season. When will he be shut down? What about the Indians young star on the hill --- why are we talking about him this week? How is it possible that a reserve round addition in mixed leagues is outperforming a former league MVP? The Nationals added an outfielder to the mix. Should anyone care? Second sackers are in the news from Baltimore to Kansas City to Seattle. Also, when will the Phillies closer ever pick up another save? This and much more in today's all-encompassing, articulate and eminently enjoyable article.
A LOOMING SHUTDOWN
After throwing 134 innings last season it makes sense to cap this fellas innings this year, and since you've known that all along hopefully you have plans in place when he is shutdown.
The Marlins have nothing to play for this season, so it's wise for them to look to the future (ironic that we're talking about forward thinking with this club who continually dismantles it's club). Joe Frisaro is reporting that the club plans to shut down Jose Fernandez at 170 innings pitched this season. Fernandez enters play on Monday with 139.2 innings pitched (he's set to face the Dodgers Monday). If he is allowed to get to that 170 inning mark, and he pitches an average of seven innings a start, he will be shut down on September 4[SUP]th[/SUP] when his IP mark would be just short of 170 (if the club wanted him to have an extra day between starts they might push him back to September 6[SUP]th[/SUP]).
Fernandez has been elite this season by any measure other than W-L where he is 8-5. Fernandez is third in the NL with a 2.45 ERA, his 1.02 WHIP is third and his 149 Ks in 139.2 innings give him a K/9 mark of 9.60 which is the fourth best mark in the NL. Fernandez has allowed three earned runs only once in 10 his last starts, and during that time he's dropped his ERA nearly three quarters of a run as he's allowed 13 runs in his last 10 starts. There are only a handful of better options as keepers in the NL, and there's not many that would have predicted that such a statement would be true five months ago with the 21 year old rookie.
A SUPRISING COMPARISON
If I were to throw out these numbers, could you tell me who they belonged to? I'm betting you wouldn't be able to tell me.
.230-19-60-58-3 with a .285 OBP and .710 OPS
.214-23-62-50-0 with a .313 OBP and .754 OPS
Obviously the whole point of this exercise is that one guy is under-performing while the other is over-performing so they basically meet in the middle.
One guy is a five time All-Star and league MVP.
The other had a total of 332 at-bats coming into the season.
The first set of numbers belong to Josh Hamilton while the second belongs to Chris Carter. Yes, the Astros' slugger who was lucky to be taken by the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] round has actually been the equal of a fella that was a top-25 overall pick in most mixed leagues this season
A DEAL
David DeJesus was dealt from the Cubs to the Nationals for a Player To Be Named later (the Nats released Roger Bernadina to open up a roster spot). Yippee. By my count the Nationals will be starting Jayson Werth in right, Denard Span in center and Bryce Harper in left. DeJesus could steal some from Span who is hitting a mere .264 with a .670 OPS and 11 steals, but it's not like DeJesus has done anything different with the bat this season. Let's compare the duo.
D. Span: .264/.314/.356 with 33 RBIs, 49 runs, 11 steals
DeJesus: .250/.330/.401 with 27 RBIs, 39 runs, 3 steals
DeJesus is 178 at-bats behind Span this season so it's fair to say that DeJesus is a more productive player this season on a per at-bat basis, but that's really not saying much given his level of production. DeJesus is not going to see any work against lefties since he's hitting .156 with a .402 OPS against them this season (45 at-bats), though it's not like he's far off the pace of Span which is also awful (.173 with a .427 OPS in 127 at-bats). Adding a veteran like DeJesus is a fine thing to do, but really the best thing he's likely to do for D.C. is to up their GQ factor because of his smoking hot wife. What the Nationals really could have used was a player who they could platoon who really hits lefties well (Span has hit .298 with a .761 OPS against righties this season).
A RELEASE
Elliot Johnson was let go by the Royals. That likely means nothing at all to a good deal of you, but if you're in an AL-only league it's a tough blow if you had been eating his poor production to get some steals. And poor protection is an understatement. Johnson is hitting .179 with two homers and nine RBIs in 162 at-bats, so you were paying a dear price for those 14 steals (he hasn't been caught once). OK, no one likely cares that he was released. With Miguel Tejada also done for the year it looks like Hosmer/Moustakas on the corners, Alcides Escobar at short and Chris Getz at second. Jamey Carroll will also be sprinkled in. Getz has boosted his average from .209 to .230 over his last eight games but he's only bringing speed as well (11 steals over 61 games).
SHORT HOPS
*Dustin Ackley has hit .409 the past week. Yes, that Dustin Ackley, the guy hitting .239 for the Mariners this season. Better yet, Ackley is batting .417 the past two weeks. I know, crazy ain’t it? Ackley has a horrific total of one bomb through 276 at-bats and his 19 RBIs, 29 runs and two steals leave him as someone who is really only a one category booster at the moment. Still, he's played 45 games at second base and 34 in the outfield this season, so in AL-only leagues he might just end up being a solid option down the stretch.
Jonathan Papelbon has a 2.70 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, a 4.89 K/BB ratio and 20 saves. Another in a series of impressive seasons. Sort of. Here's the downside. His 8.49 K/9 mark is a career worst and two full batters below his career mark. He has six blown saves this season after blowing just seven the last two years. He doesn't have a single save in August. Moreover, his last save was five weeks ago... on July 11[SUP]th[/SUP], and that fact alone is truly astounding. Despite the massive void in the saves column, there's every possibility that he rips off three saves this week. It's just the nature of the beast. He'll need to kick things into gear in order to reach 30 saves for the 8[SUP]th[/SUP] straight season.
Brian Roberts used to be a hell of an offensive contributor. He's scored 100 runs four times, from 2007-09 he stole an average of 40 bases a season, and from 2005-2009 he hit .294. Alas, that was eons ago for the oft injured second sacker. Roberts appeared in just 59 games in 2010, 39 in 2011 and 17 in 2012 as injury after injury kept him sidelined. This season he's been sidelined for all but 41 games, but there might be some reason to take note again. Not only has he driven in four runs in his last two games and six runners in his last six games, but he's also produced 10 hits in his last six games. It's a nice hot streak that might lead to some mixed leagues relevance as a middle infielder, but note that through 131 at-bats that he has two homers, one steal an a .331 OBP.
Danny Salazar will have his Monday start pushed back to Tuesday (Zack McAllister will toe the rubber in his place). Salazar is fine, don't worry those of you that added him to the mix. The team just wants to monitor his workload. However, this is a big blow to those setting their lineups once a week. Salazar was set up to be a 2-start pitcher this week. With his first start being pushed back to Tuesday it robs him of that bonus this week since the club has an off day Thursday the 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] (Happy Anniversary Mom and Dad). Salazar has made three starts in the bigs and though he is just 1-1 with a 4.08 ERA he's pitched very well with a 0.96 WHIP, 11.21 K/9 mark an a 4.40 K/BB ratio. His lone failing has been the long ball as he's surrendered four big flies. He should have a lot of success if he keeps the ball in the yard.
Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87, Monday through Friday. For more of Ray's analysis you can check out BaseballGuys.com or the BaseballGuys' Twitter account where he tirelessly answer everyone's questions.
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