The trade deadline in most leagues is after this weekend. There’s an art to trading with someone online that you’ve never met before. Asking for too much too early can effect negotiations. But not “winning” a trade begs the question, why did you trade player X in the first place? Some quick thoughts: don’t offer an outfielder/third basemen/etc. to a team that is stacked at that position, you’re wasting your time. I pulled off a trade of Starlin Castro and Travis Wood for Stephen Strasburg because that owner had just lost Asdrubal Cabrera and there were no other SS on the wire. Need meets opportunity. One trick I like to do is offer a one-sided trade to an owner, in their favor, for a player I want. Then immediately cancel the trade. This is risky and best to do late at night when that owner is asleep so they can’t immediately accept it, but it literally takes 2 seconds to cancel a trade. This does three things for you. One, it can convince the owner that he wants to make a deal for a player he had no intention of trading. Two, it usually results in them offering you a trade which puts you in back in a position of power for negotiations. And three, that owner now thinks you’re an indecisive idiot, which we want them to think. Owners don’t want to part with a player if they think you know something they don’t. If an owner doesn’t get email notifications of trades then this strategy won’t help you. And lastly, in the message attached to the trade, don’t tell someone how the stats work out in their favor. This inevitably sends them to investigate the stats for themselves. Better to say something like, “I’m desperate for an OF, open to counter proposal.” Once two sides have both offered proposals, the odds a deal gets done go up like 50% (math not accurate). My Monday column covered the players I like best on the waiver-wire this week. Today let’s look at the stock of some big names you could try to buy or sell before the Fantasy Baseball trade deadline.* All ownership percentages are from Yahoo!
Ryan Zimmerman (97%): On average, Zimmerman was drafted around the 5th round. His production hasn’t been great but ranked 156th on the year is good value for the round. Still, 23 third basemen have out-produced him in the last month and his 13 HRs on the year don’t suggest he’ll hit many more in the second half. I’m not convinced his shoulder is healthy. His name recognition should help you get value for him. SELL
Matt Kemp (95%): He might come back soon but let somebody else worry about it.* Time is running out to get something useful back for him. 3 weeks ago I traded him straight up for Aroldis Chapman and I couldn’t be happier. SELL
Pablo Sandoval (91%): It’s no secret that I don’t like him in fantasy, and his batting average the last month may have killed any chance of you getting value for him. But for some reason people believe in him. Use that to your advantage. SELL
Jimmy Rollins (86%): Considering Brad Miller (11%) has been outproducing him for the past two months, parting with Rollins and his .244 average seem like a no brainer. SELL
Curtis Granderson (86%): If I could put money down on Granderson hitting more HRs than Ryan Zimmerman in the second half, I would. His stock is so low right now you could probably get him as a throw-in. BUY
Nick Markakis (78%): His 740th ranking in the last month mis-represent his production. He hasn’t hit a home run or stolen a base but he’s kept his average at .278 which suggests he’s not hitting all that different from the beginning of the year (.284 on the season). I like the Orioles to keep scoring runs down the stretch. BUY
Aramis Ramirez (73%): Now would be a good time to sell while he’s been activated. You’re living in the past if you’re counting on him for big numbers. SELL
Adam Wainwright (99%): Just see if the owner in your league is at all frustrated with his 742 ranking in the last month. There’s a small window to grab him while his numbers are down. Jake Peavy and an extra bat might be enough to get it done. BUY
Cliff Lee (98%): Another ace who could be bothering his owner at the moment with a 5.82 ERA in the last month. BUY
Jordan Zimmerman (97%): This could be the first rough patch of Zimmerman’s career. I trust his track record to this point. BUY
CC Sabathia (94%): His ability to pitch complete games is invaluable in leagues that count that stat, but I think we’re seeing the pitching equivalent to Albert Pujols right now: a great player on the decline. SELL
Jeff Samardzija (86%): I actually like him a lot and I’ll probably draft him next year but he wasn’t great in the second half last season and seems headed that way again. SELL
Jeff Locke (78%): Locke is a great story but how long could his dominance really last? Sell while you still can. SELL
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Ryan Zimmerman (97%): On average, Zimmerman was drafted around the 5th round. His production hasn’t been great but ranked 156th on the year is good value for the round. Still, 23 third basemen have out-produced him in the last month and his 13 HRs on the year don’t suggest he’ll hit many more in the second half. I’m not convinced his shoulder is healthy. His name recognition should help you get value for him. SELL
Matt Kemp (95%): He might come back soon but let somebody else worry about it.* Time is running out to get something useful back for him. 3 weeks ago I traded him straight up for Aroldis Chapman and I couldn’t be happier. SELL
Pablo Sandoval (91%): It’s no secret that I don’t like him in fantasy, and his batting average the last month may have killed any chance of you getting value for him. But for some reason people believe in him. Use that to your advantage. SELL
Jimmy Rollins (86%): Considering Brad Miller (11%) has been outproducing him for the past two months, parting with Rollins and his .244 average seem like a no brainer. SELL
Curtis Granderson (86%): If I could put money down on Granderson hitting more HRs than Ryan Zimmerman in the second half, I would. His stock is so low right now you could probably get him as a throw-in. BUY
Nick Markakis (78%): His 740th ranking in the last month mis-represent his production. He hasn’t hit a home run or stolen a base but he’s kept his average at .278 which suggests he’s not hitting all that different from the beginning of the year (.284 on the season). I like the Orioles to keep scoring runs down the stretch. BUY
Aramis Ramirez (73%): Now would be a good time to sell while he’s been activated. You’re living in the past if you’re counting on him for big numbers. SELL
Adam Wainwright (99%): Just see if the owner in your league is at all frustrated with his 742 ranking in the last month. There’s a small window to grab him while his numbers are down. Jake Peavy and an extra bat might be enough to get it done. BUY
Cliff Lee (98%): Another ace who could be bothering his owner at the moment with a 5.82 ERA in the last month. BUY
Jordan Zimmerman (97%): This could be the first rough patch of Zimmerman’s career. I trust his track record to this point. BUY
CC Sabathia (94%): His ability to pitch complete games is invaluable in leagues that count that stat, but I think we’re seeing the pitching equivalent to Albert Pujols right now: a great player on the decline. SELL
Jeff Samardzija (86%): I actually like him a lot and I’ll probably draft him next year but he wasn’t great in the second half last season and seems headed that way again. SELL
Jeff Locke (78%): Locke is a great story but how long could his dominance really last? Sell while you still can. SELL
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