In his 16 seasons in the NBA, Charles Barkley pulled down 12,546 rebounds and was affectionately known as “The Round Mound of Rebound.” In the three years that Gnarls Barkley was an active musical group, they pulled down zero rebounds and are now a distant memory despite having been fronted by Cee Lo Green (which I only found out recently because apparently I’m dumb).
This information is important because when looking at a disappointing fantasy baseball player we need to separate who will rebound going forward (like Charles Barkley) and who will not rebound but instead will fizzle into nothingness (like Gnarls Barkley).
Obviously players who battle injuries this year will have a great chance to rebound next year by simply getting healthy in the off-season, so I am going to focus on healthier players who have just performed poorly in 2013 so far.
Justin VerlanderVerlander is in the midst of his worst season in five years. The three main reasons used to explain his drop in production have been his decline in velocity (down almost two miles per hour from last year), his shakier control (he’s walking one more batter per nine innings than last year) and that his overwhelming workload from the past seven years has caught up to him.
The good news for Verlander owners is that his velocity has risen recently, averaging 95.2 mph on his fastball in his last five starts (up from the 93.3 mph in his first 20 starts). Verlander has also allowed just one walk in his past 15 innings, perhaps a sign that his control is improving. His workload is still an interesting factor, as Roy Halladay has shown us, as it doesn’t take long for a fantasy ace to lose it. Verlander may not be the no doubt top starter in fantasy leagues any more, but I still believe he will be a Top 5 starter next year.
Verdict – Charles Barkley. Way to box out, Verlander.
Josh HamiltonHamilton was a considered a Top 20 hitter by many entering this season and has successfully pissed off every one of his owners. What is astounding is that his peripheral stats during this horrendous season are pretty comparable to his great season last year. His walk rate and strikeout rate are very similar, as are his line drive, ground ball and fly ball rates. It appears the only difference between the two years is that he’s not hitting the ball hard…at all.
According to Jeff Zimmerman’s Baseball Heat Maps, Hamilton’s average batted ball distance on home runs and fly balls this year sits at just 272 feet (that’s less than Mark Ellis), while last year he averaged 300 feet (that’s Giancarlo Stanton territory). That drop in distance has clearly shown up in his stats as his isolated power has plummeted from .292 last year to .184 this year. Hamilton may be able to put together another fabulous season before his massive contract with the Angels expires, but even with his expected drop in price in fantasy drafts next year, I won’t be buying him.
Verdict – Gnarls Barkley, does that make me crazy? No.
Prince FielderFielder is another perennial power hitter who has been more slug than slugger this year. Usually a lock for 30+ homers—he’s done it for six straight years after hitting 28 home runs in his rookie season—Prince has only managed to lift 17 balls over the fence in 2013. While his home run total is pretty much right on pace with his power numbers last year (he had 20 at this point in 2012), he is doing it with a much lower batting average leaving many fans and fantasy owners wondering what is causing his drop in production.
Recently a decent explanation has come out. After Tigers’ teammate Torii Hunter hinted at some off-the-field issue that Fielder has been dealing with, reporters discovered that Fielder filed for divorce in late May. While there is no way to quantify how these sort of issues affect a baseball player’s performance, it is clearly a difficult situation for Fielder and his family that will take some time to heal.
Verdict – Charles Barkley. Prince already has the round mound, expect the rebound to come.
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