Statistics are worthless without a frame of reference. Sure, you can compare players with other plays in a basic way, but what does it all mean. It occurred to me that I went through the first three articles without providing a frame of reference for total runs. Those that have followed runs created through the years are already ahead of the game.
Baserunning runs work differently than runs created because zero is equivalent to average. Runs created works based on a minimal expectation of performance. When we look at a full season’s worth of numbers we notice that a regular should come in somewhere between 70 and 80 runs created. Bill James‘ total runs includes a baserunning and fielding number where zero is average. He adds a positional adjustment we don’t.
So, when you see a half dozen guys at a position on pace for 100 or more total runs. If you added in the fielding metric that might turn into a couple more guys. That makes third base very interesting indeed. When you get beyond those six to eight guys it gets really thin really quickly. Heck, if we were going purely on the current numbers, Mark Reynolds would be in the top twenty. He was just DFAed by the Indians.
This has a detrimental effect on fantasy players playing in leagues with twelve or more teams. If you look at the table below you would be hard pressed to find even ten guys worth starting. This is where creativity comes into play. There are several guys that are eligible at third base that don’t play the position regularly. They include Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Carpenter, et al.
Of course, a big part of the problem is that there are several key names missing from this list. Toronto’s Brett Lawrie was a top 100 selection in a number of drafts and he is missing here. A large part of the problem is the fielding noise we see with Nolan Arenado and Matt Dominguez. We see it with Manny Machado as well, but he backs it up with some offensive production.
In all fairness, he has missed considerable time this season. He would otherwise be in the top twenty through sheer volume. Will Middlebrooks on the other hand fell off the wagon through bad performance. He lost his job in Boston and there is no indication that he will ever get it back.
However, the biggest name missing is Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez normally is a top ten third baseman easily and sometimes a top five when he is hot. A large part of his problem has been injuries, but it has also been a season where the Brewers have largely disintegrated. They have top notch fantasy players in Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, but the supporting cast has been lacking. So, he is likely a guy that will end up going back into the top ten. Even if two out of three make it back to where they are expected to be, the position will gain its depth back.
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Baserunning runs work differently than runs created because zero is equivalent to average. Runs created works based on a minimal expectation of performance. When we look at a full season’s worth of numbers we notice that a regular should come in somewhere between 70 and 80 runs created. Bill James‘ total runs includes a baserunning and fielding number where zero is average. He adds a positional adjustment we don’t.
So, when you see a half dozen guys at a position on pace for 100 or more total runs. If you added in the fielding metric that might turn into a couple more guys. That makes third base very interesting indeed. When you get beyond those six to eight guys it gets really thin really quickly. Heck, if we were going purely on the current numbers, Mark Reynolds would be in the top twenty. He was just DFAed by the Indians.
This has a detrimental effect on fantasy players playing in leagues with twelve or more teams. If you look at the table below you would be hard pressed to find even ten guys worth starting. This is where creativity comes into play. There are several guys that are eligible at third base that don’t play the position regularly. They include Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Carpenter, et al.
| Rank | RC | BR | Tot | Notes | |
| Miguel Cabrera | 2 | 105 | 5 | 110 | Imagine the season as two thirds done. This means he is on pace for 160 total runs. |
| Adrian Beltre | 17 | 81 | 81 | He is quietly putting up solid Hall of Fame credentials. | |
| David Wright | 23 | 80 | 1 | 81 | It looks like that contract was justified for now. |
| Kyle Seager | 148 | 75 | 2 | 77 | Perhaps the most anonymous superstar in the game. |
| Josh Donaldson | 354 | 70 | 70 | If Seager isn’t the most anonymous star then this guy is. | |
| Evan Longoria | 21 | 69 | -2 | 67 | A somewhat down year, but he is still on pace to get to 100 total runs. |
| Manny Machado | 211 | 66 | 66 | He has been a revelation this year. Add in the defense and he is easily top three or four. | |
| Chris Johnson | 360 | 56 | -2 | 54 | A blind pig finds mud every now and then. His defense makes him marginal though. |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 31 | 53 | 1 | 54 | If he could stay healthy he would be a consistent top five third baseman. If….. |
| Pedro Alvarez | 166 | 53 | 53 | He got off to a terrible start, but if you ignore April and May he has been top three caliber. | |
| Martin Prado | 81 | 50 | -3 | 47 | Just not an exciting guy in terms of fantasy. His ability to play multiple positions makes him okay. |
| Michael Young | 240 | 49 | -2 | 47 | He has been exposed this year as mediocre. Add in terrible defense and he’s downright marginal. |
| Todd Frazier | 143 | 45 | 2 | 47 | His team is undefeated when he homers. Not bad for a guy with ten dingers. |
| Chase Headley | 117 | 48 | -3 | 45 | They should have traded him in the offseason. 2012 is looking like a mirage. |
| Pablo Sandoval | 53 | 41 | -2 | 39 | Fantasy players bought too much into the three homer game in the World Series. |
| Luis Valbuena | 988 | 37 | 1 | 38 | You couldn’t be more obscure than Valbuena at the beginning of the season. |
| David Freese | 95 | 40 | -3 | 37 | He is the 2012 version of Pablo Sandoval. People still buying into that 2011 World Series. |
| Nolan Arenado | 326 | 34 | 34 | His defense plays him up severely. So, he will play regularly if anything else. | |
| Trevor Plouffe | 284 | 33 | 1 | 34 | When you look up mediocre in the dictionary you see his picture. |
| Matt Dominguez | 748 | 34 | -1 | 33 | Like Arenado, his defense plays him up, just not as much. |
In all fairness, he has missed considerable time this season. He would otherwise be in the top twenty through sheer volume. Will Middlebrooks on the other hand fell off the wagon through bad performance. He lost his job in Boston and there is no indication that he will ever get it back.
However, the biggest name missing is Aramis Ramirez. Ramirez normally is a top ten third baseman easily and sometimes a top five when he is hot. A large part of his problem has been injuries, but it has also been a season where the Brewers have largely disintegrated. They have top notch fantasy players in Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Jean Segura, but the supporting cast has been lacking. So, he is likely a guy that will end up going back into the top ten. Even if two out of three make it back to where they are expected to be, the position will gain its depth back.
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