Aug. 24, 2013 10:05 AM ET
A week ago, the uncertainty around the Braves' and Rays' rotations was wreaking havoc with Fantasy rosters, and many owners are still looking for answers as we approach Fantasy Week 22 (Aug. 26- Sept. 1).
With Brandon Beachy going on the 15-day disabled list with tightness in his elbow, the Braves' rotation suddenly got less crowded, so the team has fewer means to push back Alex Wood's second start. Still, with the club having concerns over several of their starters' innings, owners shouldn't be surprised if the Braves find a way to adjust their rotation. Just maybe newly-acquired Freddy Garcia will find his way into some spot starts, possibly beginning as soon as this week.
As for the Rays' situation, it appears Matt Moore (elbow) won't be ready to return in Week 22, as he will pitch a sim game on Saturday, and according to the Tampa Tribune, he will follow that up with another sim game start or a rehab outing. With Moore still out of commission, there is a potential two-start week waiting to be claimed, but the Rays have not announced whether they will use Roberto Hernandez or someone else for the currently-vacant spot.
In addition to Beachy, Matt Cain (forearm) and Jake Westbrook (back) went on the DL on Friday, but their respective replacements -- Yusmeiro Petit (@COL) and Tyler Lyons (CIN, @PIT) -- should only be considered in deeper leagues. Tony Cingrani (back) could be a casualty, too, but for now, I have him at No. 49 in this week's top 70. That, of course, could change for Monday's Pitching Forecaster update. I'll also check back on the status of Roy Halladay, who has some chance of returning next weekend, though the Philadelphia Inquirer reports his rehab assignment could last longer than anticipated.
While you may have some injuries to contend with as you set your rotations, at least you may not have to spend much time sifting through your free agent two-start options for the coming week. In this week's rankings, I have included only four two-start pitchers between Nos. 50 and 70. The waiver options are generally not very appealing, so you're probably best off using the starters you already have or seeking quality one-start alternatives.
Honorable mention: Wily Peralta vs. LAA (Vargas); Wei-Yin Chen @BOS (Lackey); Jhoulys Chacin vs. SF (Bumgarner); Andrew Cashner @LAD (Capuano); Bruce Chen @MIN (Albers).
Two-Start Options to Consider
Alex Wood, Braves (CLE, MIA): As mentioned above, it appears Wood will make both of his scheduled starts. Not that it matters whether he does or not, as Wood has pitched his way into must-start status. He's been automatic over his last five starts, holding opponents to a .196/.243/.290 slash line. While those numbers are bound to rise somewhat going forward, xFIP estimates that Wood is deserving of a 2.95 season-to-date ERA -- not too much higher than his 2.50 mark.
This week's rank: 22
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Zack Wheeler, Mets (PHI, @WAS): Week after week, I've been less optimistic about Wheeler than many other Fantasy owners and analysts, as I've worried about him issuing too many walks. Wheeler's given me one less thing to complain about, as he has walked 12 batters over his last 31 innings -- a completely respectable ratio. There is still the matter of his flyball tendencies, but they're not extreme and won't spoil his week all on their own. He looks like a safe play as long as he keeps throwing strikes.
This week's rank: 33
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Tyson Ross, Padres (@ARI, @LAD): Ross' streak of five straight quality starts ended Tuesday when he allowed four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Pirates, but it was his sixth start in a row in which he got 10 or more swinging strikes. After putting up subpar whiff rates in each of the last two seasons, Ross is getting hitters to pursue and miss on 11 percent of his pitches this season. Increased fastball velocity is surely playing a role, so he could maintain his 8.0 K/9 rate. Ross still struggles with control, so his 1.17 WHIP could rise, but that won't ruin his viability for this two-start week.
This week's rank: 34
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays (NYY, KC): Even though Dickey has allowed four runs in each of his two last starts, he has built on his recent pattern of getting whiffs at a high rate and throwing more strikes in general. That doesn't mean he is without risk this week, as Dickey is also building on his precedent of struggling at Rogers Centre, and he gets two starts there. Opponents have slugged .506 versus Dickey in his home starts, but at least he'll face the Royals, who remain one of the American League's lesser power-hitting teams. If you have Dickey benched, you might as well view his glass as half-full, since you are unlikely to find a two-start pitcher with similar upside on waivers.
This week's rank: 39
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Danny Salazar, Indians (@ATL, @DET): After having a start pushed back in consecutive weeks -- thus erasing a second scheduled start in each week -- I've practically given up hope that Salazar will ever actually get a two-start week. It doesn't matter, though. Salazar is worth starting in nearly all formats as a one-start pitcher, just to get his strikeouts and low WHIP.
This week's rank: 45
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Jonathon Niese, Mets (PHI, @WAS): Niese has put his early-season control issues behind him, and since mid-May, he's been more like his old self. Even well before his midseason disabled list stint, Niese had begun to throw strikes more consistently and limit his walks. Over his last nine starts, Niese has failed to hold opponents to three runs or fewer just once. He's been steady enough to work his way back to standard mixed league viability, and he can be started with confidence in a two-start week.
This week's rank: 46
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Gerrit Cole, Pirates (MIL, STL): For most of this season, Cole has found strikeouts to be elusive. Over his last five starts, though, he has started to put his meager K-rate behind him, notching 28 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. Given the relatively small sample, it could just be a mirage, but it could also be the first signs of Cole making good on the potential he showed prior to this year. Even if Cole doesn't miss as many bats this week, he should benefit from pitching at PNC Park, where he has allowed only eight doubles and three home runs in 51 2/3 innings.
This week's rank: 47
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Felix Doubront, Red Sox (BAL, CHW): Doubront entered his most recent start in the midst of a minor skid, having posted a 4.73 ERA over his previous five turns in the rotation. Some of his troubles stemmed from apparent bad luck on balls in play (.365 BABIP), but a dip in his swinging strike rate raised the spectre of more balls getting put in play. While Doubront bounced back Wednesday against the Giants, he still managed to get just six whiffs in 114 pitches. Though Doubront's inconsistency may cause owners to squirm when placing him in their rotation this week, he's still a better use of an active roster spot than most of your waiver options.
This week's rank: 50
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start
Kyle Lohse, Brewers (@PIT, LAA): Aside from a difficult May, Lohse has been a consistent producer in Fantasy despite his usual lack of strikeouts. He helps himself with a low walk rate, but given how much contact Lohse allows, he can be vulnerable to bad outings. Lohse's upcoming home outing against the Angels in particular looks like an opportunity for his ERA and WHIP to take a hit. That's especially true if Carlos Gomez is not patrolling center field, as he has probably played a role in helping Lohse to low BABIPs on flyballs (.078) and line drives (.550), though Gomez's return to the lineup Friday is an encouraging sign.
This week's rank: 58
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start
Miguel Gonzalez, Orioles (@BOS, @NYY): With the Orioles' rotation unsettled beyond Saturday, it's entirely possible that Gonzalez gets only one start in the coming week, and that's critical to his placement in this week's rankings. He's been steady but unspectacular, and he needs a second start to ensure that he's worth starting in standard mixed leagues. With just one start, whatever gains you get from Gonzalez's better-than-average WHIP (1.22 since May 3), you could lose in ERA, as the Yankees could touch him up with extra-base hits.
This week's rank: 65
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start
A.J. Griffin, Athletics (@DET, TB): When Griffin finished last season with a 3.06 ERA, xFIP said: not so fast, Fantasy owners. The advanced metric accounted for, among other things, Griffin's 78 percent strand rate and estimated that, with lesser luck, he should have tacked on nearly a run to his ERA. As foreshadowed by xFIP, Griffin has not been good for your rotation's ERA this year, but at least he's offered a low WHIP. Actually, even that hasn't been the case over his last three starts, as Griffin's control has suddenly and inexplicably abandoned him. If he rights himself, Griffin could be a decent two-start option, but that's a lot to expect, especially with two tough opponents on the schedule. If that's not reason enough to be cautious about using Griffin, keep in mind that he may lose his second start to either Brett Anderson or Bartolo Colon.
This week's rank: 70
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start
Mike Leake, Reds (@STL, @COL): Leake coasted to a 2.52 ERA through the end of June, but given his mediocre strikeout rate, he seeed primed for regression in the second half. His 4.25 ERA since then may not be much of a surprise, and it's discouraging that he's been a far worse pitcher from a skills perspective. Leake has been allowing more contact, particularly of the airborne variety, and that's enabled batters to slug .472 against him over his last nine starts. Given that trend, a trip to Coors Field should raise a bright red flag.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Phil Hughes, Yankees (@TOR, BAL): If Hughes were just a little less amenable to giving up homers, he could be started safely in two-start weeks, offering a similar level of value and risk as Miguel Gonzalez or A.J. Griffin. He's not likely to be, having posted HR/9 rates in excess of 1.25 in three of the last four seasons. Hughes is too much of a potential burden on your ERA to make it worth chasing strikeouts and WHIP in a two-start week.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (@KC, @OAK): Just as Hellickson seemed to be breaking loose from his malaise, he's mired in a funk once again. During his initial slump this season, Hellickson's struggles were born of the combination of a high flyball rate and a surprisingly low strand rate, but at least he was getting strikeouts at a reasonable clip. Over his last five outings, Hellickson has recorded a mere 12 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings, as swings-and-misses have been less common. While he could be helped by pitching in favorable environments this week, it's not as if Hellickson has been that good at pitcher's parks this year.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Andre Rienzo, White Sox (HOU, @BOS): Rienzo hasn't been getting many swings-and-misses or strikeouts, but he's carried the gains he made in Triple-A in getting grounders over to his first few starts as a major leaguer. Perhaps he'll have a big strikeout game against the Astros, but he'll need to keep the ball down against the Red Sox if he is to escape Week 22 unscathed. That will be no easy feat, as Boston ranks among the top teams in Isolated Power and flyball rate.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Brett Oberholtzer, Astros (@CHW, SEA): Oberholtzer has remained true to the form he displayed in his minor league career, showing strong control while allowing a fair amount of contact. That has worked well enough for Oberholtzer to have notched quality starts in his first four turns in the Astros' rotation, and he hasn't had the easiest of schedules. Unless he reduces his 47 percent flyball rate, the southpaw is probably due for a comeuppance, even though he's facing lesser competition this week. The Mariners aren't a bad power-hitting team, and not surprisingly, the White Sox have hit homers more frequently when at U.S. Cellular Field.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Nate Eovaldi, Marlins (@WAS, @ATL): Eovaldi's owners are still stinging from last week's battering at the hands of the Giants, but that was one of only two sub-quality starts he has turned in this season out of a dozen tries. Though he throws hard, nothing in Eovaldi's skill ratios really stands out. The most noticeable feature in his stat line is the five home runs allowed in 70 2/3 innings, and that's not especially surprising, as Eovaldi hasn't made many visits to hitter-friendly parks. Nationals Park and Turner Field both play as neutral venues, so while it may not be a terrible week for Eovaldi, it's not a week to trust him in anything shallower than a very deep mixed league.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Kyle Kendrick, Phillies (@NYM, @CHC): There was a time when Kendrick was getting just enough strikeouts to be a factor in two-start weeks, but we haven't seen that version of him in two months. While Kendrick is still adept at throwing strikes and getting grounders, he allows too much contact to be trusted in mixed leagues. He should be better going forward than his 6.62 ERA from his last 10 starts would indicate, but Kendrick is still just relevant for NL-only leagues.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start
Brandon McCarthy, Diamondbacks (SD, SF): One could look at McCarthy's bloated 5.44 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and point an accusing finger at his .352 BABIP. Often a rate that high smells of bad luck, but a 6 percent whiff rate and 29 percent line drive rate suggest that McCarthy has just been plain hittable. Though he does benefit from favorable matchups this week, mixed league owners are best served by taking a wait-and-see approach.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start
Jeremy Guthrie, Royals (TB, @TOR): It's hard to fathom how Guthrie has managed a 12-10 record, but even with those wins, he is currently the 62nd-ranking pitcher in Fantasy points in standard formats. That ranking gives Guthrie the appearance of being someone to consider for two-start weeks, but he's even risky to start in AL-only leagues. According to FanGraphs.com, Guthrie has allowed contact at the second-highest rate in the majors, and with opponents slugging .446 against him, the contact he's allowing is often brutal in nature.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: AL-only start
Jake Arrieta, Cubs (@LAD, PHI): Arrieta got his Cubs career off to a good start with two successful outings, but the third time was not the charm. His subpar control got the worst of him, as he threw only 44 of 78 pitches for strikes and issued four walks in four innings. Even though Arrieta could pile up strikeouts in a two-start week, he's been extremely wild in most of his appearances this season. Not only can he clog up the bases, but with a history of poor strand rates, Arrieta has been all too good at emptying the bases by way of home plate.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start
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A week ago, the uncertainty around the Braves' and Rays' rotations was wreaking havoc with Fantasy rosters, and many owners are still looking for answers as we approach Fantasy Week 22 (Aug. 26- Sept. 1).
With Brandon Beachy going on the 15-day disabled list with tightness in his elbow, the Braves' rotation suddenly got less crowded, so the team has fewer means to push back Alex Wood's second start. Still, with the club having concerns over several of their starters' innings, owners shouldn't be surprised if the Braves find a way to adjust their rotation. Just maybe newly-acquired Freddy Garcia will find his way into some spot starts, possibly beginning as soon as this week.
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In addition to Beachy, Matt Cain (forearm) and Jake Westbrook (back) went on the DL on Friday, but their respective replacements -- Yusmeiro Petit (@COL) and Tyler Lyons (CIN, @PIT) -- should only be considered in deeper leagues. Tony Cingrani (back) could be a casualty, too, but for now, I have him at No. 49 in this week's top 70. That, of course, could change for Monday's Pitching Forecaster update. I'll also check back on the status of Roy Halladay, who has some chance of returning next weekend, though the Philadelphia Inquirer reports his rehab assignment could last longer than anticipated.
While you may have some injuries to contend with as you set your rotations, at least you may not have to spend much time sifting through your free agent two-start options for the coming week. In this week's rankings, I have included only four two-start pitchers between Nos. 50 and 70. The waiver options are generally not very appealing, so you're probably best off using the starters you already have or seeking quality one-start alternatives.
| My Top 70 Starting Pitchers for Week 22 | |||
| Rank | Player | Start 1 | Start 2 |
| 1 | Zack Greinke | CHC (Arrieta) | SD (Ross) |
| 2 | Anibal Sanchez | OAK (Milone) | CLE (Kazmir) |
| 3 | Justin Verlander | OAK (Griffin) | CLE (Salazar) |
| 4 | Cliff Lee | @NYM (Wheeler) | @CHC (Rusin) |
| 5 | Clayton Kershaw | CHC (Wood) | N/A |
| 6 | Max Scherzer | OAK (Parker) | N/A |
| 7 | Yu Darvish | MIN (Hendriks) | N/A |
| 8 | Chris Sale | HOU (Bedard) | N/A |
| 9 | David Price | LAA (Richards) | N/A |
| 10 | Felix Hernandez | TEX (Perez) | N/A |
| 11 | Stephen Strasburg | MIA (Alvarez) | N/A |
| 12 | Cole Hamels | @NYM (Matsuzaka) | N/A |
| 13 | Adam Wainwright | CIN (Bailey) | N/A |
| 14 | Mike Minor | MIA (Turner) | N/A |
| 15 | Matt Harvey | PHI (Martin) | N/A |
| 16 | James Shields | @MIN (Correia) | @TOR (Happ) |
| 17 | Patrick Corbin | SF (Vogelsong) | N/A |
| 18 | Mat Latos | @STL (Kelly) | N/A |
| 19 | Francisco Liriano | STL (Miller) | N/A |
| 20 | C.J. Wilson | @TB (Hernandez) | @MIL (Lohse) |
| 21 | Hisashi Iwakuma | TEX (Holland) | @HOU (Oberholtzer) |
| 22 | Alex Wood | CLE (Salazar) | MIA (Eovaldi) |
| 23 | Derek Holland | @SEA (Iwakuma) | N/A |
| 24 | Gio Gonzalez | MIA (Koehler) | N/A |
| 25 | Julio Teheran | MIA (Fernandez) | N/A |
| 26 | Justin Masterson | @ATL (Maholm) | N/A |
| 27 | Doug Fister | OAK (Straily) | N/A |
| 28 | A.J. Burnett | STL (Lynn) | N/A |
| 29 | Madison Bumgarner | @COL (Chacin) | N/A |
| 30 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | SD (Stults) | N/A |
| 31 | John Lackey | BAL (Chen) | N/A |
| 32 | Jose Fernandez | @ATL (Teheran) | N/A |
| 33 | Zack Wheeler | PHI (Lee) | @WAS (Haren) |
| 34 | Tyson Ross | @ARI (McCarthy) | @LAD (Greinke) |
| 35 | Lance Lynn | @PIT (Burnett) | N/A |
| 36 | Jered Weaver | @MIL (Estrada) | N/A |
| 37 | Hiroki Kuroda | @TOR (Redmond) | N/A |
| 38 | Jordan Zimmermann | NYM (Gee) | N/A |
| 39 | R.A. Dickey | NYY (Hughes) | KC (Guthrie) |
| 40 | Homer Bailey | @STL (Wainwright) | N/A |
| 41 | Jake Peavy | CHW (Danks) | N/A |
| 42 | Ervin Santana | @TOR (Buehrle) | N/A |
| 43 | Shelby Miller | @PIT (Liriano) | N/A |
| 44 | Dan Haren | NYM (Wheeler) | N/A |
| 45 | Danny Salazar | @ATL (Wood) | @DET (Verlander) |
| 46 | Jonathon Niese | PHI (Kendrick) | @WAS (Ohlendorf) |
| 47 | Gerrit Cole | MIL (Lohse) | STL (Lyons) |
| 48 | Ivan Nova | BAL (Feldman) | N/A |
| 49 | Tony Cingrani | @COL (De La Rosa) | N/A |
| 50 | Felix Doubront | BAL (Gonzalez) | CHW (Rienzo) |
| 51 | Dillon Gee | @WAS (Zimmermann) | N/A |
| 52 | Kris Medlen | CLE (Jimenez) | N/A |
| 53 | Chris Archer | LAA (Williams) | N/A |
| 54 | Wade Miley | SD (Volquez) | N/A |
| 55 | Alex Cobb | @OAK (Gray) | N/A |
| 56 | Jarrod Parker | @DET (Scherzer) | N/A |
| 57 | Martin Perez | @SEA (Hernandez) | N/A |
| 58 | Kyle Lohse | @PIT (Cole) | LAA (Wilson) |
| 59 | Jon Lester | BAL (Norris) | N/A |
| 60 | Marco Estrada | LAA (Weaver) | N/A |
| 61 | Matt Garza | MIN (Pelfrey) | N/A |
| 62 | Dan Straily | @DET (Fister) | N/A |
| 63 | Jose Quintana | HOU (Cosart) | N/A |
| 64 | Tim Lincecum | @ARI (Delgado) | N/A |
| 65 | Miguel Gonzalez | @BOS (Doubront) | @NYY (Hughes) |
| 66 | Travis Wood | @LAD (Kershaw) | N/A |
| 67 | Sonny Gray | TB (Cobb) | N/A |
| 68 | Garrett Richards | @TB (Price) | N/A |
| 69 | Bronson Arroyo | @COL (Manship) | N/A |
| 70 | A.J. Griffin | @DET (Verlander) | TB (Hernandez) |
Two-Start Options to Consider
Alex Wood, Braves (CLE, MIA): As mentioned above, it appears Wood will make both of his scheduled starts. Not that it matters whether he does or not, as Wood has pitched his way into must-start status. He's been automatic over his last five starts, holding opponents to a .196/.243/.290 slash line. While those numbers are bound to rise somewhat going forward, xFIP estimates that Wood is deserving of a 2.95 season-to-date ERA -- not too much higher than his 2.50 mark.
This week's rank: 22
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Zack Wheeler, Mets (PHI, @WAS): Week after week, I've been less optimistic about Wheeler than many other Fantasy owners and analysts, as I've worried about him issuing too many walks. Wheeler's given me one less thing to complain about, as he has walked 12 batters over his last 31 innings -- a completely respectable ratio. There is still the matter of his flyball tendencies, but they're not extreme and won't spoil his week all on their own. He looks like a safe play as long as he keeps throwing strikes.
This week's rank: 33
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Tyson Ross, Padres (@ARI, @LAD): Ross' streak of five straight quality starts ended Tuesday when he allowed four earned runs in 6 1/3 innings against the Pirates, but it was his sixth start in a row in which he got 10 or more swinging strikes. After putting up subpar whiff rates in each of the last two seasons, Ross is getting hitters to pursue and miss on 11 percent of his pitches this season. Increased fastball velocity is surely playing a role, so he could maintain his 8.0 K/9 rate. Ross still struggles with control, so his 1.17 WHIP could rise, but that won't ruin his viability for this two-start week.
This week's rank: 34
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
R.A. Dickey, Blue Jays (NYY, KC): Even though Dickey has allowed four runs in each of his two last starts, he has built on his recent pattern of getting whiffs at a high rate and throwing more strikes in general. That doesn't mean he is without risk this week, as Dickey is also building on his precedent of struggling at Rogers Centre, and he gets two starts there. Opponents have slugged .506 versus Dickey in his home starts, but at least he'll face the Royals, who remain one of the American League's lesser power-hitting teams. If you have Dickey benched, you might as well view his glass as half-full, since you are unlikely to find a two-start pitcher with similar upside on waivers.
This week's rank: 39
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Danny Salazar, Indians (@ATL, @DET): After having a start pushed back in consecutive weeks -- thus erasing a second scheduled start in each week -- I've practically given up hope that Salazar will ever actually get a two-start week. It doesn't matter, though. Salazar is worth starting in nearly all formats as a one-start pitcher, just to get his strikeouts and low WHIP.
This week's rank: 45
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Jonathon Niese, Mets (PHI, @WAS): Niese has put his early-season control issues behind him, and since mid-May, he's been more like his old self. Even well before his midseason disabled list stint, Niese had begun to throw strikes more consistently and limit his walks. Over his last nine starts, Niese has failed to hold opponents to three runs or fewer just once. He's been steady enough to work his way back to standard mixed league viability, and he can be started with confidence in a two-start week.
This week's rank: 46
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Gerrit Cole, Pirates (MIL, STL): For most of this season, Cole has found strikeouts to be elusive. Over his last five starts, though, he has started to put his meager K-rate behind him, notching 28 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings. Given the relatively small sample, it could just be a mirage, but it could also be the first signs of Cole making good on the potential he showed prior to this year. Even if Cole doesn't miss as many bats this week, he should benefit from pitching at PNC Park, where he has allowed only eight doubles and three home runs in 51 2/3 innings.
This week's rank: 47
My take: Solid standard mixed league start
Felix Doubront, Red Sox (BAL, CHW): Doubront entered his most recent start in the midst of a minor skid, having posted a 4.73 ERA over his previous five turns in the rotation. Some of his troubles stemmed from apparent bad luck on balls in play (.365 BABIP), but a dip in his swinging strike rate raised the spectre of more balls getting put in play. While Doubront bounced back Wednesday against the Giants, he still managed to get just six whiffs in 114 pitches. Though Doubront's inconsistency may cause owners to squirm when placing him in their rotation this week, he's still a better use of an active roster spot than most of your waiver options.
This week's rank: 50
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start
Kyle Lohse, Brewers (@PIT, LAA): Aside from a difficult May, Lohse has been a consistent producer in Fantasy despite his usual lack of strikeouts. He helps himself with a low walk rate, but given how much contact Lohse allows, he can be vulnerable to bad outings. Lohse's upcoming home outing against the Angels in particular looks like an opportunity for his ERA and WHIP to take a hit. That's especially true if Carlos Gomez is not patrolling center field, as he has probably played a role in helping Lohse to low BABIPs on flyballs (.078) and line drives (.550), though Gomez's return to the lineup Friday is an encouraging sign.
This week's rank: 58
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start
Miguel Gonzalez, Orioles (@BOS, @NYY): With the Orioles' rotation unsettled beyond Saturday, it's entirely possible that Gonzalez gets only one start in the coming week, and that's critical to his placement in this week's rankings. He's been steady but unspectacular, and he needs a second start to ensure that he's worth starting in standard mixed leagues. With just one start, whatever gains you get from Gonzalez's better-than-average WHIP (1.22 since May 3), you could lose in ERA, as the Yankees could touch him up with extra-base hits.
This week's rank: 65
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start
A.J. Griffin, Athletics (@DET, TB): When Griffin finished last season with a 3.06 ERA, xFIP said: not so fast, Fantasy owners. The advanced metric accounted for, among other things, Griffin's 78 percent strand rate and estimated that, with lesser luck, he should have tacked on nearly a run to his ERA. As foreshadowed by xFIP, Griffin has not been good for your rotation's ERA this year, but at least he's offered a low WHIP. Actually, even that hasn't been the case over his last three starts, as Griffin's control has suddenly and inexplicably abandoned him. If he rights himself, Griffin could be a decent two-start option, but that's a lot to expect, especially with two tough opponents on the schedule. If that's not reason enough to be cautious about using Griffin, keep in mind that he may lose his second start to either Brett Anderson or Bartolo Colon.
This week's rank: 70
My take: Marginal standard mixed league start
Mike Leake, Reds (@STL, @COL): Leake coasted to a 2.52 ERA through the end of June, but given his mediocre strikeout rate, he seeed primed for regression in the second half. His 4.25 ERA since then may not be much of a surprise, and it's discouraging that he's been a far worse pitcher from a skills perspective. Leake has been allowing more contact, particularly of the airborne variety, and that's enabled batters to slug .472 against him over his last nine starts. Given that trend, a trip to Coors Field should raise a bright red flag.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Phil Hughes, Yankees (@TOR, BAL): If Hughes were just a little less amenable to giving up homers, he could be started safely in two-start weeks, offering a similar level of value and risk as Miguel Gonzalez or A.J. Griffin. He's not likely to be, having posted HR/9 rates in excess of 1.25 in three of the last four seasons. Hughes is too much of a potential burden on your ERA to make it worth chasing strikeouts and WHIP in a two-start week.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Jeremy Hellickson, Rays (@KC, @OAK): Just as Hellickson seemed to be breaking loose from his malaise, he's mired in a funk once again. During his initial slump this season, Hellickson's struggles were born of the combination of a high flyball rate and a surprisingly low strand rate, but at least he was getting strikeouts at a reasonable clip. Over his last five outings, Hellickson has recorded a mere 12 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings, as swings-and-misses have been less common. While he could be helped by pitching in favorable environments this week, it's not as if Hellickson has been that good at pitcher's parks this year.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Andre Rienzo, White Sox (HOU, @BOS): Rienzo hasn't been getting many swings-and-misses or strikeouts, but he's carried the gains he made in Triple-A in getting grounders over to his first few starts as a major leaguer. Perhaps he'll have a big strikeout game against the Astros, but he'll need to keep the ball down against the Red Sox if he is to escape Week 22 unscathed. That will be no easy feat, as Boston ranks among the top teams in Isolated Power and flyball rate.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Brett Oberholtzer, Astros (@CHW, SEA): Oberholtzer has remained true to the form he displayed in his minor league career, showing strong control while allowing a fair amount of contact. That has worked well enough for Oberholtzer to have notched quality starts in his first four turns in the Astros' rotation, and he hasn't had the easiest of schedules. Unless he reduces his 47 percent flyball rate, the southpaw is probably due for a comeuppance, even though he's facing lesser competition this week. The Mariners aren't a bad power-hitting team, and not surprisingly, the White Sox have hit homers more frequently when at U.S. Cellular Field.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Nate Eovaldi, Marlins (@WAS, @ATL): Eovaldi's owners are still stinging from last week's battering at the hands of the Giants, but that was one of only two sub-quality starts he has turned in this season out of a dozen tries. Though he throws hard, nothing in Eovaldi's skill ratios really stands out. The most noticeable feature in his stat line is the five home runs allowed in 70 2/3 innings, and that's not especially surprising, as Eovaldi hasn't made many visits to hitter-friendly parks. Nationals Park and Turner Field both play as neutral venues, so while it may not be a terrible week for Eovaldi, it's not a week to trust him in anything shallower than a very deep mixed league.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: Deeper mixed league start
Kyle Kendrick, Phillies (@NYM, @CHC): There was a time when Kendrick was getting just enough strikeouts to be a factor in two-start weeks, but we haven't seen that version of him in two months. While Kendrick is still adept at throwing strikes and getting grounders, he allows too much contact to be trusted in mixed leagues. He should be better going forward than his 6.62 ERA from his last 10 starts would indicate, but Kendrick is still just relevant for NL-only leagues.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start
Brandon McCarthy, Diamondbacks (SD, SF): One could look at McCarthy's bloated 5.44 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and point an accusing finger at his .352 BABIP. Often a rate that high smells of bad luck, but a 6 percent whiff rate and 29 percent line drive rate suggest that McCarthy has just been plain hittable. Though he does benefit from favorable matchups this week, mixed league owners are best served by taking a wait-and-see approach.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start
Jeremy Guthrie, Royals (TB, @TOR): It's hard to fathom how Guthrie has managed a 12-10 record, but even with those wins, he is currently the 62nd-ranking pitcher in Fantasy points in standard formats. That ranking gives Guthrie the appearance of being someone to consider for two-start weeks, but he's even risky to start in AL-only leagues. According to FanGraphs.com, Guthrie has allowed contact at the second-highest rate in the majors, and with opponents slugging .446 against him, the contact he's allowing is often brutal in nature.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: AL-only start
Jake Arrieta, Cubs (@LAD, PHI): Arrieta got his Cubs career off to a good start with two successful outings, but the third time was not the charm. His subpar control got the worst of him, as he threw only 44 of 78 pitches for strikes and issued four walks in four innings. Even though Arrieta could pile up strikeouts in a two-start week, he's been extremely wild in most of his appearances this season. Not only can he clog up the bases, but with a history of poor strand rates, Arrieta has been all too good at emptying the bases by way of home plate.
This week's rank: N/A
My take: NL-only start
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us on Twitter @CBSFantasyBB or Al Melchior at @almelccbs .
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