Fantasy baseball success is all about maximizing value and timing. You want to grab players at the right point on their trajectory upward and then part ways when they begin to trend downward. Of course that harder said than done. Every owner in your league should be trying to do the same exact thing (possibly with the same players), complicating matters. All that means is that you have to look that much harder to find value.
In some cases that means keeping your eyes out for rising prospects, potentially grabbing them a week or two early. Then, when you find success with your “flash in the pan” additions, make sure that you don’t get too greedy and let them over stay their welcome in your lineup.
Here are 3 players whose stock I think is rising this week, and 3 whose stock I think is falling.
3 Up:
1) Sonny Gray, SP, Oakland A’s. Gray came up earlier this year, but it really was just a tease. Now, it looks like he here to stay. The righty has made two starts so far, and has been nothing short of dominating. He took the loss in his debut as a starter against the Blue Jays, but only allowed two runs over six innings while striking out five. Then in his next start against the Astros, Gray took it to the next level striking out nine over eight innings while earning his first major league win. Now yes, I know it was against the Astros, but they are still major league hitters (arguably anyways) and it was an impressive performance.
He did not receive a lot of attention upon his promotion, because he was not regarded as an upper tier prospect. His minor league career has been iffy, but this season he rebounded in Triple-A as he had a 3.42 ERA and 100 strikeouts in 118.1 innings. I’m not saying that Gray should receive the same attention that Zack Wheeler got earlier this season, but he is worth an addition. This is especially true in keeper leagues.
2) Roy Halladay, SP, Philadelphia Phillies. I know this is a weird choice for this space, because Halladay generally is not a player you forget about. However, the next time he takes the mound he will do so with an 8.65 ERA. That alone makes you want to forget about the ace, but he also has not started since May 5. When he went on the disabled list, if you needed the roster space he was a good candidate to be dropped considering it was not a guarantee that he would return. While he is still working the rust off, Halladay appears to be healthy though you cannot expect the same pitcher as in years past. In his last start in the rookie league, Halladay threw 87 pitches in six innings allowing three runs. At the very least, stash him on your bench and let him prove himself.
3) Dan Haren, SP, Washington Nationals. Don’t look now, but it appears that Haren has righted the ship. Not counting his save in the 15th inning the other day, striking out two batters in a scoreless inning, he has finally been living up to expectation going 3-0 over his past four starts. In his 27 innings, the righty struck out 22 batters allowing four total runs on 14 hits and five walks. While he might not keep up this level of success, there is a track record here so I would buy.
3 Down:
1) Eric Young, OF, New York Mets. Upon his arrival in New York, Young provided the Mets with a nice spark at the top of the order. He got on base, picked up some key hits and was a good source of stolen bases. Lately, though, he has been slumping and showing why the Rockies finally gave up on him earlier this season. After the All-Star break his average has been .193, and he is batting .197 in the month of August with only four stolen bases. It does not look like he will have another month like he did in July, when he stole 13 bases, so I would start to look elsewhere.
2) Chase Headley, 3B, San Diego Padres. Maybe the Padres should have sold high on Headley last season when they had the chance. It wasn’t just San Diego that expected big things from the third baseman this season, as fantasy owners did as well. Headley’s average sits at .237, and he only has eight home runs and 35 RBI. For a little while in July it looked like he did find a groove, but that success was short lived. As the season is drawing to a close the need to keep him stashed on bench diminishes, and by this time you should have already looked elsewhere.
3) Michael Wacha, SP, St. Louis Cardinals. What is good for the Cardinals is not good for fantasy owners. It really should not come as a surprise that Wacha is now pitching out of the bullpen. For the stretch run and playoffs it will help the Cardinals, but, it also greatly reduces his fantasy value. While fantasy owners would rather the performance come from Wacha as a starter (he’s thrown 3.0 perfect innings out of the pen), there is still some value here depending on what you are looking for. If he is going to strike out people in each relief outing, then that could come in handy. The problem though, is that his workload will likely not be consistent. Plus, despite his early success, there will still be some growing pains in his new role. Starting Wacha might be better than a mediocre starter, but depending on your needs, this could have rendered him useless.
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